by a Thinker, Sailor, Blogger, Irreverent Guy from Madras

TC 01B ‘MAHASEN’ will skip Chennai

Almost 6 months to the day, there is another Deep Depression in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), which has actually intensified and been officially christened ‘MAHASEN’.  In November of 2012 there was a Deep Depression 03B which acted as though it was interested in lashing Chennai.  Sadly, it thrilled only to deceive and dissipated without intensifying into a Tropical Cyclone.

After 6 months, the only other Deep Depression to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone named MAHASEN, sadly seem to be in a similar mood to skip Chennai.

The city is parched, to put it mildly.  The well in my apartment complex, which has never failed to sustain us for the last 12 years, even when Chennai faced a drought during the last Jayalalithaa administration (2003), is drying out.  Quite disconcerting.

As per the latest forecast, Tropical Cyclone 01B ‘MAHASEN’ is expected to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm in the early hours of 13th and make its closest approach to Chennai around noon on the same day (13th, 0700 UTC).  The only problem is the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is at a distance of some 360 NM (~660 km).

Here is the TC warning (#05) graphic from the JTWC.


At 660 km distance, there is little chance of a deluge at Chennai from TC 01B MAHASEN.  What we might well experience is an occasional cloudburst which will be the proverbial drop in the desert.

I am even more worried about the aftermath.  TC 01B MAHASEN might well suck all the moisture along with it to dump it on Chittagong coast and leave the southern Indian coast, especially Chennai absolutely dry till the monsoon.  Scary thought!

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