After the Madras, now Chennai deluge, a former senior colleague and well-wisher called about our well being at Chennai. And we reminisced about how I warned him about vigorous North East Monsoon, and the failure of South East Monsoon, six months ago.
Both the warnings about the effects of the El Nino – the failure of South West Monsoon and a deluge from North East Monsoon was not from my imagination. It was by the-now-routine (to me at least) observations of the Neem, and the Easter Tree in front of my apartment complex, and the reports of the blooming, fruiting of the Tamarind trees in rural Tamil Nadu, as an indication of the El Nino effect.
I had commented about it in The Hindustan Times – which uses Disqus commenting system – in the months of April-June & to my eternal regret did not post it in this blog for iron-clad proof. BTW why is it so hard to search Disqus commenting system? If they do not correct it – I am afraid Disqus will die away; just as I switched back to Blogger commenting system, many others would soon shift.
To get back to point, the pointers (pun intended) were that the Neem trees initially did bloom during the time of Ugadhi (Telugu New Year) and persisted for the Tamil New Year (March-April 2015). But soon after, the blooms sort of crisped, and the usual spray of the Neem seeds, which we used to find everywhere were absent (the Tamarind trees too, gave up). Then later, the Neem trees flowered once again, and there was the usual, abundant spray of seeds – the crows and other birds eat the ripe fruits, and drop the indigestible seeds around – once again I failed to blog about it, though wrote on HT comments.
But equally relevant – and AFAIK, only from my observations over the last few years - is the Easter Tree which I have been referring about. I usually sheds its leaves when there is a weather change around. Around the time of Easter, the Madras, now Chennai weather changes from mild to hot – and the tree sheds. That’s the reason for my naming the tree as ‘Easter Tree’. But it also sheds when the rainy season turns into the milder (though to the warm blooded Chennai people – cold) winter climate.
And it happened after the Chennai deluge. Though the official Met forecast is another round of heavy showers, implied as another deluge, I am going out on a limb and predicting – based on the Easter Tree indication, which has shed its leaves – that the North East Monsoon is over. The El Nino effect for this year too, is finished. A word of caution though – I am not saying that there will NOT be any more rains, only that the worst is behind us – especially for Chennai Metro and northern Tamil Nadu. And probably, with crossed fingers, probably the El Nino is petering away.
Here are the images of the Easter Tree shedding. As for the Weather Forecast, always trust the official IMD Met forecast.
Next couple of days would prove whether to trust my native, observant weather forecast. While keeping fingers crossed, if NOAA, Australia and IMD forecast that NE Monsoon and El Nino for 2015 are over, remember where you read about it first.
Both the warnings about the effects of the El Nino – the failure of South West Monsoon and a deluge from North East Monsoon was not from my imagination. It was by the-now-routine (to me at least) observations of the Neem, and the Easter Tree in front of my apartment complex, and the reports of the blooming, fruiting of the Tamarind trees in rural Tamil Nadu, as an indication of the El Nino effect.
I had commented about it in The Hindustan Times – which uses Disqus commenting system – in the months of April-June & to my eternal regret did not post it in this blog for iron-clad proof. BTW why is it so hard to search Disqus commenting system? If they do not correct it – I am afraid Disqus will die away; just as I switched back to Blogger commenting system, many others would soon shift.
To get back to point, the pointers (pun intended) were that the Neem trees initially did bloom during the time of Ugadhi (Telugu New Year) and persisted for the Tamil New Year (March-April 2015). But soon after, the blooms sort of crisped, and the usual spray of the Neem seeds, which we used to find everywhere were absent (the Tamarind trees too, gave up). Then later, the Neem trees flowered once again, and there was the usual, abundant spray of seeds – the crows and other birds eat the ripe fruits, and drop the indigestible seeds around – once again I failed to blog about it, though wrote on HT comments.
But equally relevant – and AFAIK, only from my observations over the last few years - is the Easter Tree which I have been referring about. I usually sheds its leaves when there is a weather change around. Around the time of Easter, the Madras, now Chennai weather changes from mild to hot – and the tree sheds. That’s the reason for my naming the tree as ‘Easter Tree’. But it also sheds when the rainy season turns into the milder (though to the warm blooded Chennai people – cold) winter climate.
And it happened after the Chennai deluge. Though the official Met forecast is another round of heavy showers, implied as another deluge, I am going out on a limb and predicting – based on the Easter Tree indication, which has shed its leaves – that the North East Monsoon is over. The El Nino effect for this year too, is finished. A word of caution though – I am not saying that there will NOT be any more rains, only that the worst is behind us – especially for Chennai Metro and northern Tamil Nadu. And probably, with crossed fingers, probably the El Nino is petering away.
Here are the images of the Easter Tree shedding. As for the Weather Forecast, always trust the official IMD Met forecast.
Next couple of days would prove whether to trust my native, observant weather forecast. While keeping fingers crossed, if NOAA, Australia and IMD forecast that NE Monsoon and El Nino for 2015 are over, remember where you read about it first.
Tags: el nino,north east monsoon
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