by a Thinker, Sailor, Blogger, Irreverent Guy from Madras

DMK cannot get out of 2G Scam allegations

The Times of India reports that the DMK aims to contest at least 170 seats, leave rest to allies, as per its designated party spokesman T K S Elangovan. However the interview and comments were soon disowned by the DMK party.  Even T.K.S. Elangovan himself is supposed to have termed the 'unfortunate' comments as that of his personal view.

There are of course speculations that it was in fact, a high command authorized, or staged drama, which did not evoke the desired results, rather boomeranged disastrously.

The tactical reason behind the alleged staged interview is also speculated, with theories ranging from

to maintain upper-hand during seat-sharing talks for the 2016 Assembly elections;
to divert attention from Azhagiri's outburst against Stalin on the latest opinion poll;
to divert attention from Stalin's prominence, and attraction as theorized in latest opinion poll.

Whatever the reason, I find it strange that they hit upon the 170 figure mark.  Seeing that the TN Assembly consists of 234 elected members plus 1 nominated member, the magic figure is just 117.

Though 117 sounds vocally closer to 170 in English, one of the 2 major parties of TN contesting around 150 seats, is sure to go past the line - provided people want that party or its alliance to come back to power.

Just think about it.

If the people want DMK to be back in power in 2016, they would vote them in if the party fights in its strongest 140 seats.  Even assuming a 10% margin of error, they are sure to get through with enough seats to form a government on their own.

OTOH, if the DMK thinks that it can get through only with allies, then, naturally, only by giving adequate representation to its alliance partners, can they hope to form the next government.

Assuming that at present the ADMK vote share is at 33% and the DMK is at 23%, the DMK hopes to make up the deficient 11% from the prospective allies.  If they do not consolidate that alliance vote, there seems to be no chance of putting one over the ADMK in 2016.  Thus the DMK can claim double the share of seats to contest, vis-a-vis its alliance partners, or approximately 156 seats or so.

So instead of 170, they could very well have said 150 or even 160.  After all there is not much of a difference between 170 and 160 from the DMK view point.  If they cannot get past 120 from their strongest 140 seats, they can never do so contesting another 20, 30, or even 60 seats.

Stating a proposed target of 160 would also have left something on the table for the alliance partners to look for.  Not much, but maybe just enough to tempt them in.

So why did they blurt out 170?  Where did that magical 170 crop up from?  IMHO, the DMK cannot forget the allegations of the 2GScam.  A Scam which is supposed to have cost the exchequer Rs. 170,000 crores.

Their nightmares must be of that 170 all these days, and in a bit of sub-conscious provocation, the 170 was blurted out.

(image courtesy shreyas navare / Hindustan Times)

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