The World’s largest exercise in democracy will finally come to an end tomorrow, though the tally would be known only on 16th May. But let us see what are the chances for the parties in the 40 seats of Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.
As explained in The Tamil Brigades charging the Red Fort earlier today, the provocation for this fantastic (shameless self promotion) analysis was the Thuglak attempt at copying my novel spreadsheet idea of the Fort series. In contrast, this is the ‘Red Fort’ series.
;-)
So, here is the tabulation of the first, second and third place projection for all the 40 seats of Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, from the Junior Vikatan and Kumudam Reporter issues dated 27th April 2014 (in hand on 22 Apr 2014). Splitting them with the blue background is the Thuglak’s forecast for 31 seats from their issue dated 07 May 2014 (column J).
To simplify matters, only 4 political formations (instead of the actual 5 or 6) is shown - the ADMK, DMK alliance, the BJP alliance and the Congress (INC). I have laboriously entered the relative forecast position of the groups respectively. In the case of Thuglak only the first letter of the winning formation is indicated (A, D, B or C).
To understand the spreadsheet, first take a look at the data from column D to N. Row 45 sums up the number of Wins (1st place) projected for each formation.
Row 45 summing up the Total highlights the difficulties in plumbing the minds of the Tamil voter. Keeping in mind that both the magazines are well organized, and had (presumably) conducted the surveys during the same time period, the projections are off by miles. We cannot call them - either of them - even as ball park figures.
While
Why not another spreadsheet which will actually predict the number of votes for the 4 major grouping in each seat?
With just 4 days to go, can I do it?
And do it credibly?
As explained in The Tamil Brigades charging the Red Fort earlier today, the provocation for this fantastic (shameless self promotion) analysis was the Thuglak attempt at copying my novel spreadsheet idea of the Fort series. In contrast, this is the ‘Red Fort’ series.
;-)
So, here is the tabulation of the first, second and third place projection for all the 40 seats of Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, from the Junior Vikatan and Kumudam Reporter issues dated 27th April 2014 (in hand on 22 Apr 2014). Splitting them with the blue background is the Thuglak’s forecast for 31 seats from their issue dated 07 May 2014 (column J).
To simplify matters, only 4 political formations (instead of the actual 5 or 6) is shown - the ADMK, DMK alliance, the BJP alliance and the Congress (INC). I have laboriously entered the relative forecast position of the groups respectively. In the case of Thuglak only the first letter of the winning formation is indicated (A, D, B or C).
To understand the spreadsheet, first take a look at the data from column D to N. Row 45 sums up the number of Wins (1st place) projected for each formation.
Row 45 summing up the Total highlights the difficulties in plumbing the minds of the Tamil voter. Keeping in mind that both the magazines are well organized, and had (presumably) conducted the surveys during the same time period, the projections are off by miles. We cannot call them - either of them - even as ball park figures.
While
- JV projects 15 seats for ADMK, KR gives them 26;
- JV grants 14 and 11 seats for DMK and BJP, while KR blesses them with 7 and 7 respectively.
- The column C is marked 'green' when both JV and KR predictions for all the 3 places are the same - 13 seats do tally in both projections.
- The column B is marked 'pink' where JV and KR predictions do not match for the 1st place winner - - a whopping 17 seats have this difference.
- But if we leave it at that, it would not be a mad.madrasi post, is it not?
- The column A is marked yellow, where the projections do not tally for 2nd and 3rd place. Now if you think that I am living up to my nom-de-plume, and am trying to confuse you, banish that thought.
- The 3rd place switch can occur, and in fact is seen here.
- A quirk like that can occur in 2 instances. Remember there are 4 political groups.
- 1 & 2 can switch places and the distant 3 & 4 can do too. This can happen if the margins between 1 & 2 (ADMK and DMK in TN) are closer, and margins between 3 & 4 (BJP and INC in TN) are also closer - but the gap between 1,2 and 3,4 is huge (as it is in TN). This can be accepted as it is almost impossible to predict 3rd or 4th place in a Lok Sabha election. Take a look at 24.Pondicherry.
- But it can also happen in another instance. If the projected winner in one is placed 3rd in another. If this happens, it calls into question the surveys - both of them. Look at 7.Arakkonam or 40. Kanyakumari.
- A total of 19 seats are so - of which 9 have different 1st place winner.
Why not another spreadsheet which will actually predict the number of votes for the 4 major grouping in each seat?
With just 4 days to go, can I do it?
And do it credibly?
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