Less than 12 hours from now, the two Vice-President hopefuls Tim Kaine of the Democrats, and the Republican Mike Pence will duel in what will be truly the first VP debate of the internet age. Back in 2008, Sarah Palin sideshow did not have the full benefit of Twitter or Facebook, while the Trump dumps of 03:20 AM (on Twitter) are infamous today.
The media is of course on the bandwagon, with articles on the debate – what to expect (Vox), what to watch for (CNN, NYT), what to look at (Fox), why to watch (BBC, Guardian), what to know (USAToday), and battle of the normals (WP, Politico).
I think they have all missed the point. This debate of the Veeps will probably turn out to be one of the most important in the modern history of America. That’s because whoever becomes POTUS Trump or Hilary, the gut feeling is they would be One-Term President.
[edit at 21:00 IST - Only WIRED have speculated, as I just found out, that Pence might become/act as a behind the scenes US President, because Trump might rely on Pence w.r.t. Domestic Policy - assuming President Trump is fully conversant in Foreign Policy]
First a look at the GOP. If Donald Trump wins, he would do so through Electoral College vote, and not through Popular Vote. And I have a feeling that Mike Pence, the Veep would become POTUS sooner rather than later, in this case. Within 2 years, the actions of Trump would be so absurd (echoes of Spiro Agnew?), the establishment Republicans would intervene to ease out Trump, elevate Pence, and probably make Paul Ryan the Veep.
Of the Democrats, they are the proverbial frog in boiling water situation, and have not realised it. Only the wimpy reaction or the scared cat unwillingness of the establishment Republicans to Dump Trump has helped the Donkeys in 2016.
The first strategic mistake was committed in 2008, when just like the GOP of 2016, the DNC failed to convince Barack Obama into a Hilary-Obama ticket. That would have ensured a 16 year Democratic lock-in on the White House.
Now look at their mess. After Barack Obama, who is 55 this year, they are going back to a 68 year old, whose Veep at 58 is older than the current President. If he runs as a Presidential candidate after a two term Hilary administration, he would be then just two years younger at 66, than she is today.
Confronting them in 2024 will be Scott Walker (56), Paul Ryan (54), Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal (53), Nicky Haley (52), and Tom Cotton (47), to speculate about a few. On the side of the Democrats, who will be there? Only Cory Booker (55), I guess!
You may ask why am I obsessed with the potential candidates and their age in 2024. It is because the Millennials and post-millennials will form most of the electorate from now on. This might probably be the last election where pre-millennial out-vote the post.
So, don’t forget to watch the debate, or if you miss (or even if you watch) it, do not forget to read my take here.
The media is of course on the bandwagon, with articles on the debate – what to expect (Vox), what to watch for (CNN, NYT), what to look at (Fox), why to watch (BBC, Guardian), what to know (USAToday), and battle of the normals (WP, Politico).
I think they have all missed the point. This debate of the Veeps will probably turn out to be one of the most important in the modern history of America. That’s because whoever becomes POTUS Trump or Hilary, the gut feeling is they would be One-Term President.
[edit at 21:00 IST - Only WIRED have speculated, as I just found out, that Pence might become/act as a behind the scenes US President, because Trump might rely on Pence w.r.t. Domestic Policy - assuming President Trump is fully conversant in Foreign Policy]
First a look at the GOP. If Donald Trump wins, he would do so through Electoral College vote, and not through Popular Vote. And I have a feeling that Mike Pence, the Veep would become POTUS sooner rather than later, in this case. Within 2 years, the actions of Trump would be so absurd (echoes of Spiro Agnew?), the establishment Republicans would intervene to ease out Trump, elevate Pence, and probably make Paul Ryan the Veep.
Of the Democrats, they are the proverbial frog in boiling water situation, and have not realised it. Only the wimpy reaction or the scared cat unwillingness of the establishment Republicans to Dump Trump has helped the Donkeys in 2016.
The first strategic mistake was committed in 2008, when just like the GOP of 2016, the DNC failed to convince Barack Obama into a Hilary-Obama ticket. That would have ensured a 16 year Democratic lock-in on the White House.
Now look at their mess. After Barack Obama, who is 55 this year, they are going back to a 68 year old, whose Veep at 58 is older than the current President. If he runs as a Presidential candidate after a two term Hilary administration, he would be then just two years younger at 66, than she is today.
Confronting them in 2024 will be Scott Walker (56), Paul Ryan (54), Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal (53), Nicky Haley (52), and Tom Cotton (47), to speculate about a few. On the side of the Democrats, who will be there? Only Cory Booker (55), I guess!
You may ask why am I obsessed with the potential candidates and their age in 2024. It is because the Millennials and post-millennials will form most of the electorate from now on. This might probably be the last election where pre-millennial out-vote the post.
So, don’t forget to watch the debate, or if you miss (or even if you watch) it, do not forget to read my take here.
Good take on the issue. Much better than the "Silver" one. I wonder if they read this one ???
ReplyDeleteDon't know Theo, but their's was 3 hours (at least) later than mine. Mine was posted at around (maybe before) 9 PM IST, whereas their's is marked 5:17 (ET, I assume) which makes it 12 AM on 5 Oct IST
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