by a Thinker, Sailor, Blogger, Irreverent Guy from Madras

How Paul Krugman got it wrong on purchasing power?


The Indian Prime Minister is going to take live questions from the ‘press’ tomorrow at 1030 IST.  The major question is not whether he will make clear the present government policies - which I think, even the government is not clear about.

There is only one solution to arrest the present rise in prices of food items, and which the PM might himself should have perceived by now - being a far better economist than I would ever or hope to be.

That is to announce tomorrow that in 6 months, as the future trades permit, the online trading on food, and the precious metals - the Commodity Exchange - will be shut down.

As much as I admire him, I have my disagreements with what Mr. Krugman has to say [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/opinion/07krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss] - that the price rise is because of purchasing power or production shortages.  If it was due to production shortages, onion or other food prices should not have shot up so high from end-December 2010 till mid-January 2011, as we have seen in India or have recovered so soon.

After all, there was no harvest between these two dates to either get the prices up or down.  And purchasing power does follow the same argument - hasn’t gone up so appreciably; or where it has, it has been offset by rising food prices.

OTH, I wish Mr. Krugman would actually do an analysis of what the effect of Commodity Exchange of India has had on World food prices.  It is actually beyond my capability and reach or resources as of of now.  Because there has been only one even which has changed from before the Wall Street Crash and now - and that is the Commodity Exchange of India has become an active player. 

For once, I think Mr. Hu Jintao is worthy of my thanks.  (Although Mr. Hu Jintao must be laughing at the way one of the World’s best economist is tying his nation’s growth in knots with rising food prices - without him raising a hand - as this rise in food prices is going to impede economic growth, by tying up scarce resources)

As Mr. Krugman himself has to say, it has been ‘rising from 2009’, whereas actually the World economy has shrunk, or rather has not taken off so spectacularly to offset what had happened before the Wall Street crash.  If prices didn’t reach this before the crash, why should they do so now?

Nothing Mr. Krugman has stated in the article has convinced me.  It needs a very closer look and my instinctive, niggling feeling is that a study, if done correlating the inception and active trading on Commodity Exchange of India with the World Food Prices is done, it would become very clear that what has gone wrong - in short speculation.

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